Year Ender 2022: 4.6% in one year, climbed 211% in last decade, now where will Nifty 50 benchmark reach in 2023?

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Stock markets are known to give huge returns over a long period of time. A decade back, the Nifty was struggling to even reach the 6000 mark. After 10 years, in December 2022, the same Nifty reached close to 18900. Nifty has registered an astonishing growth of 211% during the last one decade. In the year 2022, the Indian market outperformed its peers and touched all-time highs despite market volatility due to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Now that the year 2023 is less than two weeks away, the Nifty 50 is expected to consolidate further. Not only this, experts believe that by the year 2030, Nifty can touch the figure of 50,000 while achieving heights.

Indian market strong despite fears of recession in Europe and American market

On Monday, the Nifty closed at a level of 18,420.45 with a gain of 151.45 points (0.83%). But at present the market condition remains volatile, this is due to the increase in interest rates by the central banks of Europe and America to control inflation. This step of central banks has deepened the fear of recession in the major economies of the world. However, on Monday, the Indian benchmark Nifty and Sensex managed to par the losses of the last two days despite signs of weakness in the global market. On December 1 this year, the Nifty managed to miss its lifetime high of 18,887.60. In the year 2022, Nifty has gained 4.6% so far.

ICICI Direct in its Technical Outlook report published on December 19 said that the Nifty 50 target for the year 2023 is 21400 level. On the other hand, if the market slips downwards, then it will get a strong support at the level of 16200. Although the matter does not end here, according to the brokerage house, the Nifty 50 may touch the level of 50,000 by the end of 2030.

# The brokerage house has also given some solid arguments in favor of the target set for Nifty in the new year, they are-

  • In the last four decades, the market has given positive returns in the third year of every decade. On an average it has been around 18% percent. On this basis the level of 18900 projected for the ongoing year has been achieved. This gives more strength to this argument. At present Nifty’s level of 18420 is considered as base, then on the basis of this logic the market can reach the level of 21720 in 2023. There is another strong basis for this argument as well. That is, 70% of the time the market has given positive returns in the years preceding the general elections.

  • The range in which the market has traded (18300-15200) in the last 13 months is indicating a breakout towards 21400 levels.

  • During the last two decades, 60% of Nifty 500 constituents moved above the 200 DMA (Days Moving Average) on eight out of 10 occasions. This has given an average return of 25% in Nifty during the last 12 months.

  • Apart from this, the brokerage house has pointed out that midcap stocks of Nifty are likely to outperform large cap stocks in the coming years. The brokerage said, “We expect mid-cap stocks to generate returns of around 20% in 2023 driven by better performance.
  • The sectors which will be closely watched by the market in 2023 are BFSI, Auto, PSU, Capital Goods & Infra, Telecom Sector. Apart from this, IT sector stocks can also give good risk-reward.

# Nifty will reach 50000 level by the year 2030!

According to a report by ICICI Direct, this decade, the Indian markets may see the same movement as seen in the US markets in the 1990-2000s and Nikkei in the 1980-90s. A growth of more than five times was registered in these markets during that period.

According to the report, data from technical studies suggest that the Nifty may touch 50,000 by the year 2030. Our argument is supported by the market performance during 2021 and 2022. Nifty is trading as per our estimates. The most exciting thing is that we are about to enter the year 2023, which studies of the past decades suggest could be the year of the market strengthening.

# After the establishment of Sexex in the year 1979, it has increased four times in every decade.

However, the brokerage house believes that such long term trends may move back and forth due to market volatility. For example, in the year 2018, he had told that by the year 2022, the market would reach the level of 19000, but due to various reasons it could reach the level of 18900 only. Although Nifty achieved this feat while battling the challenges of the Kovid pandemic, it is significant in such a situation. Elaborating on the decadal cycle, ICICI Direct says that since its inception in 1979, the Sensex has grown at a rate of four times every decade. On this basis, considering the level of Nifty 13981 in the year 2020, it can reach the level of 56,000 by the end of this decade.

The study will help investors maintain foresight in times of volatility, according to this ICICI Direct report. Nifty reaching 18900 level in the year 2022 is a positive sign despite the negative environment in the market, geopolitical concerns, fears of recession, rising inflation rates and increase in interest rates to overcome it.

# Buying opportunity comes with a fall in the market

It has also been clarified in the report of ICICI Direct that such returns in the market do not come in one go, there can be ups and downs. However, every 20% decline will provide investors with a great buying opportunity. A decade ago i.e. in December 2012, Nifty was trading at the level of 5800 to 5900. While on December 1, 2022, it was seen trading at its all-time high of 18,887.60. In such a situation, during the last decade, Nifty registered a growth of 13,017 points i.e. 222%. On December 19, 2012, the Nifty was trading at a level of 5,929.60, while yesterday i.e. on December 19, 2022 (Monday), it closed at 18420.45 points with an increase of 12,491 points. It has registered an increase of 211%. In such a situation, it gives a positive message to the market.

(Disclaimer: The facts given in this article are based on the trends of analysts and broker companies. These are not the estimates of amarujala.com. Therefore, we advise you to consult certified experts before making any investment.)

Detailed

Stock markets are known to give huge returns over a long period of time. A decade back, the Nifty was struggling to even reach the 6000 mark. After 10 years, in December 2022, the same Nifty reached close to 18900. Nifty has registered an astonishing growth of 211% during the last one decade. In the year 2022, the Indian market outperformed its peers and touched all-time highs despite market volatility due to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Now that the year 2023 is less than two weeks away, the Nifty 50 is expected to consolidate further. Not only this, experts believe that by the year 2030, Nifty can touch the figure of 50,000 while achieving heights.

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